To inform transportation investment decisions, Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs) develop forecasts on how the economy and the region will develop.
These Socioeconomic and Demographic (SED) forecasts meet the requirements under the Metropolitan Transportation Planning regulations (23 CFR 450.324(e) and provide for long-term analysis of transportation and regional development patterns.
The forecasts provide necessary data inputs to NYMTC’s travel demand model, called the New York Best Practice Model (NYBPM).
These forecasts are vital in the development of Regional Transportation Plans, transportation conformity analysis and decision-making on the use of federal transportation funds.
NYMTC’s forecasts are produced every four years, forecasting 30-35 years into the future. They are produced in five-year intervals for 31 counties within the following sub-regions:
- New York City (5 counties);
- Long Island (2 counties);
- Mid-Hudson (7 counties);
- New Jersey (14 counties); and
- Connecticut (3 counties).
Models have been developed to forecast:
- Population;
- Employment;
- Labor Force; and
- Households.
Generally, the following steps are taken when producing forecasts:
- Collect and analyze data;
- Generate preliminary forecasts;
- Meet with Forecasting Working Group (FWG) to review forecasts and agree on forecasts;
- Holding public meetings; and
- Adopt the forecasts (NYMTC Program, Finance and Administration Committee (PFAC)).
Model Outputs
Models' outputs are
- POPULATION: Total Population, Household Population, Group Quarters Population, each by age and sex group.
- EMPLOYMENT: Total Employment, Payroll Employment, Self-Employment, each by industry.
- LABOR FORCE: Total Labor Force, Employed Labor Force, each by age and sex group.
- HOUSEHOLDS: Total Households.